Questions to consider
- What do people mean by cluelessness? Is cluelessness the same as uncertainty?
- What distinguishes simple and complex cluelessness?
- Are these a reason to reject longtermism?
- How limited are we by lack of information? How much does this affect our actions?
- How much can we rely on studies like RCTs to resolve cluelessness? What other methods could we use to fill the gaps?
Resources
These are roughly ordered based on how time-efficient we expect them to be (although some might repeat content).
- Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term (Hilary Greaves) (talk - 32 min. / transcript - 23 min.)
- Growth and the Case Against Randomista Development (Hauke Hillebrandt and John G. Halstead) (EA Forum post - 37 min. / talk - 30 min.)
- A Primer on Cluelessness (Alex Holness-Tofts) (article - 5 min.)
- Philosopher Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness, population ethics, probability within a multiverse, & harnessing the brainpower of academia to tackle the most important research questions (80,000 Podcast - 2h. 49 min.)
- Simplifying Cluelessness (Phil Trammell) (paper - 20 min.)
- Cluelessness (Hilary Greaves) (paper - 40 min.)
- Making Sense of Longterm Indirect Effects (Robert Wiblin) (talk - 27 min. / transcript - 20 min.)