Questions to consider
- What do people mean by cluelessness? Is cluelessness the same as uncertainty?
- What distinguishes simple and complex cluelessness?
- Are these a reason to reject longtermism?
- How limited are we by lack of information? How much does this affect our actions?
- How much can we rely on studies like RCTs to resolve cluelessness? What other methods could we use to fill the gaps?
These are roughly ordered based on how time-efficient we expect them to be (although some might repeat content).
- Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term (Hilary Greaves) (talk - 32 min. / transcript - 23 min.)
- Growth and the Case Against Randomista Development (Hauke Hillebrandt and John G. Halstead) (EA Forum post - 37 min. / talk - 30 min.)
- A Primer on Cluelessness (Alex Holness-Tofts) (article - 5 min.)
- Philosopher Hilary Greaves on moral cluelessness, population ethics, probability within a multiverse, & harnessing the brainpower of academia to tackle the most important research questions (80,000 Podcast - 2h. 49 min.)
- Simplifying Cluelessness (Phil Trammell) (paper - 20 min.)
- Cluelessness (Hilary Greaves) (paper - 40 min.)
- Making Sense of Longterm Indirect Effects (Robert Wiblin) (talk - 27 min. / transcript - 20 min.)