Questions to consider
- What do people mean when they talk about noticing confusion?
- How can we act under uncertainty?
- How calibrated are we on our uncertainty?
As this is an optional week the reading a looser summary, you're encouraged to go research other information on this topic! Start with the articles that most interest you, and read as much as you can from there.
- Noticing You’re Confused (Arram Sabeti, 2020) (post - 6 mins)
- Noticing and Overcoming Bias (Neel Nanda, 2020) (post - 9 mins)
- Probabilistic Fallacies | Gauging the Strength of Evidence: “Our mini-course will teach you a simple trick, based on Bayes' Rule, that will help you to gauge the strength of evidence more accurately on a day-to-day basis. This trick is truly powerful. If you master it, you'll become better able to decide which ideas are worth believing in, and how strong that belief should be.” (Clearer Thinking mini-course, 30-65 mins)
- Why you shouldn't try to "change your mind" (Julia Galef, 2017) (video - 3 mins)
- A Failure, But Bot Of Prediction (Slate Star Codex / Scott Alexander, 2020) (post - 17 mins)
- Calibrate Your Judgment (Clearer Thinking tool - 30 mins)