Note: The content of this week was kindly put together by the team at Elicit, who want to make their forecasting tools more accessible.
Questions to consider
- How can I use forecasting tools to make and collate forecasts?
- How can I get better at forecasting?
- What sorts of public forecasts can EAs make use of?
Resources
Articles with a ⭐ in front are worth focussing on first, as this is an optional week the reading a looser summary, you're encouraged to go research other information on this topic!
- Read/watch introductory content:
- Below are a few introductions from various sources. As their content overlaps, we recommend choosing one article per person and then discussing your findings as a group.
- ⭐ Efforts to Improve the Accuracy of Our Judgments and Forecasts (Luke Muehlhauser (Open Philanthropy), 2016) (post - 8 mins)
- ⭐ Estimation and forecasting: an overview (Amanda Ngo (Ought), 2020) (talk - 25 mins)
- ⭐ Intro to Forecasting 01 - What is it and why should I care? (Alex Larsen (Top 50 Metaculus Forecaster), 2020) (video, 7 mins)
- Look at some examples of forecasting in action (more optional)
- ⭐ 16 types of useful predictions (Julia Galef, 2015) (post - 9 mins)
- AGI Timelines forecasting thread (Amanda Ngo, Daniel Kokotajlo, Ben Pace, 2020) (post - 2 mins)
- Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk (Amanda Ngo, 2020) (post - 3 mins)
- AGI Predictions (Amanda Ngo, Ben Pace, 2020) (post - 5 mins)
- Collection of X-risk predictions (on the Elicit Forecast platform)
- Use tools to make and track personal forecasts
- Elicit binary database (tutorial)
- Elicit distribution builder (tutorial)
- Guesstimate (made by Ozzie Gooen)
- Start developing a track record on public forecasting platforms
- Metaculus
- Good Judgment Open
- CSET-Foretell
- PredictIt